Wegovy: Long Term Predictions

What will the long term impact of Wegovy be?

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Wegovy’s on its way to UK patients, but what will its impact be long-term?

Wegovy launched earlier this month in the UK to the excitement of many who've been using weight loss (and diabetes) drugs privately. We take a look at what’s happened so far and make a few predictions about the longer-term impact of Wegovy on the weight care landscape.

Wegovy is a brand name for semaglutide, manufactured by the now household-name Danish drug company Novo Nordisk. Semaglutide had previously been available in the UK but under the brand Ozempic, and Ozempic had only been approved for use to treat diabetes. So people who were using Ozempic for weight loss were using it “off-label”. Now though, Wegovy is here. It’s basically the same drug, just approved for the purpose of weight loss, which means supply can be better managed across conditions. Those who need semaglutide for diabetes can use Ozempic, and those who want semaglutide or weight loss can use Wegovy. Or that's the theory at least.

Many people in the UK who were using Ozempic for weight loss found their supply dried up overnight when the government intervened in the supply issue and recommended that it should not be prescribed for weight loss at all. Since Weogvy launched on 4th September in the UK, many thousands have been waiting to see if their online private provider or online pharmacy was able to access the supply of the drug. We reported last week that we found a supply of the starter dose available at Health Express, and since then, we've also found the starter dose available at other online pharmacies.

These providers are starting to roll out their supply of Wegovy to existing and new patients, many of whom have been on their waiting lists for weeks if not months. Customers may find they are only able to access the starter doses and then increase their doses in a managed way. Titration (incrementally increasing doses) helps clinicians ensure patients don’t suffer side effects and that medication is working effectively. People who may have already been using semaglutide in the form of Ozempic may be irked at the possibility of having to ‘start over’.

What is clear is that most people able to access Wegovy in the next few weeks and months in the UK will be doing so as private patients, buying the weight loss drug from an online pharmacy or online weight care provider. While the NHS will be prescribing it, the trial will be limited to 50,000 patients who will be referred via a specialised weight management service. We do not know which patients would be prioritised but it is likely to be those that have a greater need. You might read that as ‘more weight to lose’ - but it will certainly be those with a BMI over 30 or over 27 with comorbidities (other related conditions).

So that's where we are now, as of September 13th, but what's next? What will the impact of Wegovy be longer term? We make a few predictions…

Wegovy’s Impact on the NHS

The NHS trial of Wegovy is a controlled and limited one, and while the NHS knows the drugs work, they’re assessing the best way to deliver and manage it. So the trial will help them figure out logistics, patient support, data management, and partnerships; they are also looking at pushing the prescribing work out to independent weight care companies. This is all exciting, but if you are a patient and want help via the NHS you might have a wait. The trial will initially support just 50,000 patients. What is clear is that the NHS will be managing an influx of requests for Wegovy. This is already evidenced by the fact that the government has launched this guidance for patients. Wegovy and other drugs of its ilk are forcing the NHS (and likely health care systems in other countries) to put a renewed focus on obesity care. While these drugs can help many patients and ultimately reduce the burden of weight-related conditions, this will take time. The process will be slow and there will be many learnings along the way.

Wegovy’s Impact on Patients Discussing Weight with GPs

Discussing weight with GPs has been notoriously difficult - with the medical profession often accused of being unsympathetic or biased against anyone suffering from overweight, or weight-related conditions. If people see Wegovy as a way to kickstart, accelerate or support their weight loss they will have to liaise with their GP to be referred to a weight management service. The good news is that weight is in more people’s consciousness, and medication-supported weight loss is a real possibility for many. If this opens up conversations about weight, this can only be a good thing. However, as weight is such a deeply emotive topic for so many, there may need to be a shift in how these conversations are handled; and a drive to ensure anyone can discuss their weight needs with their healthcare provider.

Wegovy’s Impact on Private Patients

A long NHS trial period and limited NHS capacity means many could turn to private providers as the drugs become more readily available. We will see even more people paying for weight loss medication in the UK. UK patients are used to spending £9.65 on a prescription but not ~£200 a month on medication. Some consumers could be tempted to rack up credit card debt as the drive to lose weight overshadows sensible financial management. This one needs careful watching.

Wegovy’s Impact on the ‘Wild West’ of Weight Care Providers

What was a Wild West has really tightened up in recent months. While many private prescribers simply sent customers the medication they ordered a few months ago, most have tightened their prescribing requirements. They (now) keep patient records, expect patients to login and update their health profiles and many require ‘proof of weight’ images to be uploaded. Without exact guidance, these requirements vary from provider to provider but expect the questions asked to be more in-depth.

Wegovy’s Impact on the Price of weight loss medication

The cost of a month’s supply of Wegovy 0.25mg ‘starting dose’ is around £200 per month in the UK depending on the provider, so costs soon add up as many will use the weight loss medication long term. However, as we know the actual cost is much lower, there’s a lot of profit being made by online pharmacies and weight care apps and services, so as supply eases and as competition hots up, prices may well come down.

Wegovy’s Impact on People Who Were Using Ozempic

Basically, everyone who was using Ozempic off-label for weight loss, isn’t any more, so will be moving to Wegovy as and when it becomes available. All online providers will switch from offering Ozempic to offering Wegovy. There won't be much difference for patients as the drug is the same.

Wegovy’s Impact on Scammers

The UK semaglutide supply shortage meant many dubious Ozempic suppliers popped up, and while the availability of Wegovy is welcomed to protect consumers from Ozempic scams, scammers will move on to offering counterfeit versions of Wegovy too. Patients should remain vigilant and only purchase weight loss medication from reputable sources.

Wegovy’s Impact on Weight

The availability of Wegovy as an approved drug is positive. It means many can take the medication with support from weight care programmes, legitimately and be supported on their weight loss journey. Many have already found losing weight easier, and many more will follow in their footsteps. For those with unwanted weight, above the relevant threshold, this is a good thing. However, for those who are using semaglutide to lose weight when they are not overweight to begin with, there could be unknown consequences.

Wegovy’s Impact on Weight Stigma

While many will happily use Wegovy to support healthy weight loss, others may feel the weight loss medication craze has negative consequences. A focus on weight can cause many who might otherwise have been happy with their weight to challenge their own body image and those who can't get, can’t use, or don’t want to take weight loss medication, may feel the focus on losing weight increases weight stigma. Healthcare providers will need to balance the drive to help people lose weight while supporting those suffering from obesity by reducing stigma; especially in a healthcare setting.

Wegovy’s impact on ‘the diet industry’

Diets will still be the firm favourite for many seeking to lose weight, but in future, customers will be pushed medication-assisted programmes from many traditional diet-focused providers. Providers who used to sell diets, meal plans and recipes are still doing so but are adding the medicated plans to their offerings. This could see a shake-up in the industry: those who are not offering a medicated approach to weight loss will need to offer a stand-out alternative. Those who are offering a medicated approach will also need to differentiate their offering from that of everyone else. Expect additional services, apps and telehealth support bundled as part of a “lifestyle package”.

The impact of the new wave of weight loss drugs will be wide-reaching, and while not all the above predictions will occur exactly as we imagine, we can be sure that they will have wide reaching impact. This is just the tip of the iceberg and we’ll be taking a deeper dive into many of these issues in future editions of Weight Loss Buzz. We hope you’ll join us!

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